Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 18.233791 21.213636 24.473870 28.298513 32.654866 37.454659 43.135687
2024-10-27 12.464573 16.295352 20.931396 26.921340 34.418197 43.450450 55.111745
2024-11-03 10.339505 14.792904 20.614586 28.702327 39.553416 53.502071 72.663536
2024-11-10 9.110220 14.041514 20.907693 31.021357 45.362067 64.758649 92.718555
2024-11-17 7.631154 12.592947 19.909673 31.269208 48.187736 72.117468 108.088919
2024-11-24 6.337666 11.146469 18.624659 30.808284 49.780781 77.714958 121.303164
2024-12-01 5.231037 9.776451 17.209756 29.879992 50.443088 81.858347 132.578137
2024-12-08 4.506478 8.905766 16.438022 29.812203 52.336904 87.897465 147.063738
2024-12-15 3.957717 8.243144 15.902211 30.026480 54.638872 94.677685 163.139284
2024-12-22 3.219619 7.095692 14.348261 28.270610 53.415798 95.621490 169.862589
2024-12-29 2.956536 6.825597 14.341297 29.245630 56.951007 104.631150 190.412226
2025-01-05 2.795220 6.734328 14.652332 30.824604 61.677782 115.978794 215.654957
2025-01-12 2.386943 6.073476 13.813485 30.222680 62.564973 121.101354 231.267946
2025-01-19 1.955336 5.280677 12.599402 28.749343 61.705735 123.146132 241.857343
2025-01-26 1.861737 5.260539 13.011717 30.636326 67.542641 137.868640 276.399156
2025-02-02 1.814537 5.344820 13.661811 33.094905 74.748308 155.696241 317.932873
2025-02-09 1.620421 5.013935 13.320556 33.357551 77.486099 165.218139 344.593269
2025-02-16 1.407611 4.586233 12.683251 32.868879 78.581454 171.601882 365.689797
2025-02-23 1.199452 4.122751 11.881139 31.884615 78.484525 175.563674 382.294708
2025-03-02 1.064216 3.840755 11.488503 31.812732 80.372331 183.668452 407.648306
2025-03-09 0.958625 3.625013 11.233444 32.039946 82.947028 193.371981 436.873281
2025-03-16 0.786604 3.152413 10.204313 30.177786 80.483241 192.219174 443.673751
2025-03-23 0.738339 3.083238 10.290735 31.211906 84.975850 206.366480 483.403901